WASHINGTON, 13 Oct. - (ANA) - The International Monetary Fund has significantly lowered its 2026 projections for economies across the Gulf due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and pushed back its forecast on the waterway's reopening.

 

In its latest World Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday, the IMF also slashed its forecasts for the broader region. The Middle East and North Africa economy is estimated to contract by 2 per cent this year, a downward revision of 3.1 percentage points from its April projections. It is the only region expected to record an economic contraction this year.

 

The IMF maintained its 2026 forecast for global growth at 3.1 per cent and lifted its projection for 2027 from to 3.4 per cent.

 

“This is the net result of two main forces that are shaping the outlook,” IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro told reporters, referring to the negative supply shock from the Iran war and the positive demand shock from the AI infrastructure boom.

 

The fund said the global economy had so far been able to withstand the impact from the Iran war energy shock due to a combination of factors including supply adjustment, a drawdown of inventories, lower energy intensity, and households and companies adapting to higher prices.

 

The latest forecasts come as Saudi Arabia vowed to press on with bringing its oil supplies to market despite escalating attacks on the kingdom in recent days by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

 

The number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz have declined in recent days after tanker attacks reached their highest weekly count this year on October 9. One tanker crossed the waterway on Saturday, down from eight the day before, data from analytics firm Kpler showed.

 

Confirmed total Hormuz clearance stands at roughly 11.9 million barrels per day, or about 30 per cent below its pre-war baseline, Kpler data showed, although daily readings have swung wildly. - (ANA) -

 

AB/ANA/13 October 2026 - - -