By Mohammed Al-Badawi

 

WASHINGTON, 01 Sept. - (ANA) - There has been a significant shift within the US Democratic Party towards Israel, according to a recent poll that found an overwhelming majority of Democratic voters in the first six states to hold presidential primaries in 2028 would support electing a presidential candidate who pledges to halt military aid to Israel and impose an arms embargo on it.

 

The poll by the Policy Project at the Institute for Middle East Understanding with YouGov surveyed about 4,000 likely voters in the Democratic primaries in South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia, with a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

 

The significance of the poll appears to lie in the fact that it extends to some states that do not have Arab and Muslim communities capable of influencing the course of elections, compared with the 2024 presidential election, in which Arab-American voters emerged as an influential bloc in states such as Michigan.

 

The results showed that most of Arab-Americans did not vote for presidential candidate Kamala Harris as punishment for her position on the genocide in Gaza. It also extends to states that predominantly vote Republican, such as South Carolina.

 

The shift in the general mood does not mean that this issue will determine the choice of the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028. But, it shows how Democratic voters view US military aid to Israel and the US position of providing it with unconditional support at the expense of Palestinian rights.

 

 

It should be noted that the party's presidential candidate is chosen through voters casting ballots for their preferred candidate in each state. Each candidate receives many delegates based on the proportion of votes they receive in each state, who pledge to support the candidate who selected them as delegates.

 

At the Democratic National Convention before the election, they vote to select the candidate. If no one secures a majority in the first round, senior delegates, including former presidents, state governors and members of Congress, vote in the second round. They account for about 15% of the delegates.

 

There are about 4,696 delegates to the party's national convention, including 3,949 pledged delegates and 747 known as senior delegates.

 

Some 75% of likely voters in New Hampshire, New Mexico and Michigan preferred a candidate who would prevent weapons from being sent to Israel, as did 74% in Nevada, 66% in Virginia and 65% in South Carolina.

 

Between 4% and 6% preferred a candidate who would send weapons to Israel.

 

Asked whether reducing US support for Israel would play a role in their vote, 65% of Michigan voters, 63% in New Hampshire, 61% in Nevada, 59% in New Mexico, 55% in Virginia and 46% in South Carolina answered "yes".

 

Some 70% in New Hampshire and New Mexico supported imposing US sanctions on Israel, compared with 68% in Nevada and Michigan, 61% in Virginia and 49% in South Carolina.

 

Meanwhile, 80% of likely voters in Michigan said they believed Israel was committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, compared with 78% in New Hampshire and Nevada, 76% in New Mexico, 72% in Virginia and 57% in South Carolina.

 

 

 

 

In this context, Dr Edmund Ghareeb, a professor of political science at American University in Washington, DC, listed the reasons for the shift in Democratic voters' mood, foremost among them Israel committing genocide in Gaza, which was broadcast publicly on social media; its attacks on Lebanon; and its crackdown on the student movement on university campuses over Gaza.

 

"There has been a major change in the position of Democratic voters, particularly in states with Democratic majorities," Dr Ghareeb told TNA.

 

He noted that most Americans sympathised with Israel following 7 October 2023, when the Hamas-led "Al-Aqsa Flood operation" took place, but Israeli policies, attacks on civilians, the commission of genocide, attacks on Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, the expulsion of residents and Christians from their homes, and the destruction in southern Lebanon all contributed to changing the positions of Democrats and independents, according to Ghareeb.

 

He said the US administration's handling of university student protests over Gaza, the dispersal of those protests, the arrests of students, and restrictions imposed on the right to protest and freedom of expression all significantly affected how American society viewed the issue, particularly students and young people under 35.

 

He pointed out that the decline in support for arming Israel had extended to a proportion of American Jews, who had begun adopting positions against arming Israel that did not align with Democratic political leaders.

 

He cited New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani receiving 33% of the vote among New York Jews, adding that rising food and petrol prices and their impact on the middle and ordinary classes because of the US-Israeli war on Iran had also had a significant effect on both Democrats and Republicans.

 

Ghareeb warned that this change in public opinion may not last long if there is no effective organisation to capitalise on this shift in voters' views and if new currents within the Democratic Party, such as progressives, fail to make significant use of the change.

 

He said the Gaza issue and its spread on social media, as well as Israeli policies, had pushed progressives to change their positions, reject the genocide and benefit from the movement on US streets.

 

"We see a split within both the Democratic and Republican parties, and even if President Donald Trump has control over the Republican Party, he is losing between 20% and 25% of his overall supporters, which represents a severe blow to him," he said.

 

He attributed this to the presence of Republican figures who oppose wars, such as Thomas Massie, Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene.  - (ANA) - 

 

AB/ANA/01 September 2026 - - -