LONDON, 30 Oct. - (ANA) - A new Strategic Dossier from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), published on the eve of the 2026 IISS Manama Dialogue, examines the impact and consequences of the US-Israel war with Iran on the Gulf states. It argues that the war will have a far-reaching impact on their strategic, defence and economic calculations.

 

‘The Gulf At War’, published today, provides a defence analysis of the conflict; analyses the relationships between the Gulf states and their partners, notably the United States; examines their economic resilience and their defensive performance against Iran; and discusses how their foreign, defence and economic policies are being redefined.

 

The Gulf states (Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) had assumed that their privileged relations with the US, indispensability to global energy markets, leadership of the Arab world, significant wealth and geoeconomic centrality, and calibrated engagement of Iran would immunise them against regional conflict. Instead, the war has exposed their vulnerabilities, compelling a rethink of their strategies for security and prosperity. The Gulf states have proven resilient and have avoided worst-case scenarios but now have to plan for a more volatile future.

 

 

 

 

- Recognition of Iran’s multidimensional threat as a structuring challenge for Gulf security;

- Divisions among the Gulf states over the right mix of accommodation, engagement and deterrence to deal with Iran;

- Doubts over US guarantees for Gulf security but enduring dependence on US technology, integration and power;

- Diversification of strategic and defence relationships to balance the dependence on the US;

Debate over the value of relations with Israel, seen as a disruptive power;

- Uncertainty over investments in regional bypass and resilience infrastructure amid intra-Gulf differences;

- Necessity of Gulf economic diversification away from excessive dependence on hydrocarbons highlighted, but core enabling assumptions of Gulf economic visions are under strain;

- Long-term effects of waning confidence of key export markets, especially in Asia, in the security and reliability of Gulf energy supplies;

- Heightened priority given to defence solutions and new thinking about deterrence.

 

 

 

 

- Iran launched more than 6,000 ballistic missiles and drones against 12 countries before the 8 April 2026 ceasefire. It has shown a willingness to absorb severe punishment from the US and sustain a mutually harmful stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz;

 

- Seeking strategic effect, Iran has systematically targeted energy infrastructure providing almost a third of the world’s oil, over 10% of the world’s natural gas and 19% of global liquefied natural gas exports;

 

- Gulf states face four critical capability issues; the need to replenish air-defence stockpiles amid global shortages, counter cheap mass attacks by UAVs, rebuild deterrence by acquiring long-range strike capabilities and close maritime capability gaps

 

Following the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime picture has fundamentally shifted with no firm resolution expected. Both the US and Iran have adopted costly denial strategies of their own while local powers are attempting to find a diplomatic resolution that does not recognise Iran’s control.

 

Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz is slipping, but the continuous flow of maritime traffic depends on the US’s determination to sustain its naval effort. The Gulf states must contend with US calculations about cost, defence posture and global strategy. By contrast, Iran has consistently proven willing and able to impose a cost not only on maritime traffic but also on the Gulf states’ energy and civilian infrastructure, undermining their reputations and attractiveness to investors.

 

Collectively, the Gulf States’ resilience has not been found wanting, be it defensively against Iranian attacks or economically despite the closure of the Strait. However, in the absence of a conclusive outcome to the war, the Dossier describes this pivotal moment as having ‘underscored the need for wide-ranging reforms, including decentralising and building redundancies into critical infrastructure, substantially increasing strategic reserves and improving domestic production of food and water.’

 

IISS Senior Fellow for Middle East Policy Dr Hasan Alhasan and IISS Director of Regional Security Emile Hokayem, the Dossier’s lead editors, say, ‘The war has upended the Gulf states’ basic assumptions about their security and prosperity and they now face a more tumultuous horizon. They have the tools and means to adapt and adjust, from investing in resilience to building deterrence, but they have first to align politically and strategically.’

 

 

 

 

The IISS first convened the Manama Dialogue, also known as the Middle East Regional Security Summit in 2004. It is the Middle East’s premier foreign policy, defence and security summit, bringing together foreign and defence ministers, national security advisors, senior military officers and government officials, as well as business leaders and security experts, from across the Middle East, Europe, North America, Africa, Asia and beyond, to discuss the region’s pressing security challenges. -(ANA) -

 

AB/ANA/30 October 2026 - - -