[Published: Wednesday December 17 2025]
 Assessing the Risk of an Ethiopia-Eritrea War in 2026
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ADDIS ABABA, 17 Dec. - (ANA) - Barely two years after its return, analysts say Asmara’s renewed withdrawal from the regional bloc exposes mistrust within IGAD, undermines the credibility of regional institutions and deepens geopolitical uncertainty along the Red Sea.
Eritrea has once again walked away from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), reviving long-standing frictions in one of Africa’s most volatile regions.
What Eritrea’s IGAD exit means for power and security in the Horn
Ethiopia and Eritrea are entering their most volatile moment since the Tigray war, as disputes over sea access and proxy militias drive rising border tensions. Abiy's nationalist rhetoric and Eritrea's backing of anti-government groups heighten the risk of miscalculation ahead of Ethiopia's 2026 elections.
Why It Matters:
Proxy clashes could quickly escalate, especially as Iran and Egypt deepen support for Eritrea amid Ethiopia's internal instability. Any major flare-up would destabilize the Horn of Africa, disrupt trade routes, and draw greater involvement from external actors. - (ANA) -
AB/ANA/17 December 2025 - - -
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