PARIS, 07 April. - (ANA) - This paper provides estimates of expected per capita real income gains from AI over the next decade in OECD and G20 economies. 

 

It relies on a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model to incorporate the role of international trade and considers different scenarios regarding AI adoption paths and AI capabilities. 

 

In our central scenario, AI-driven productivity gains vary widely across countries and are expected to raise per capita real income growth by 0.1–0.95 percentage points annually. 

 

The model’s dynamics reveal a key insight: while countries lagging in AI adoption can gain from cheaper, AI-intensive imports generated by global diffusion, maintaining competitiveness - especially in highly AI-exposed sectors - ultimately requires strong domestic AI adoption. 

 

As a further channel, the paper quantifies the welfare effects generated by international knowledge spillovers boosting AI adoption of countries with relatively lower AI adoption.   - (ANA) -

 

To download the full report, visit: https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2026/03/ai-meets-trade_6001acf4/13081644-en.pdf

 

AB/ANA/07 April 2026 - - -